For those who are not sure what these ratings mean they are a method of evaluating a team's efficiency on offense or defense by taking into account the tempo with which a team normally plays. For instance a run and gun team may actually play better defense than a slow it down Princeton style team that gives up on average 20 points less per game. These techniques were pioneered by baseball stat heads but those principles have been imported to basketball by people like Dean Oliver.
In essence these ratings give a estimation of how many points a team would score or allow in 100 possessions. You can therefore compare teams that play very different styles.
For the Fordham game:
Offense 102.7
Defense 76.4
The numbers seem to indicate that Maryland played a better game than they appeared to at the time. It wasn't pretty but it ended up being effective.
The annual Mike Jones debate has started again. There were some grumblings after the Notre Dame loss which saw Jones play 20 minutes despite not sinking a single field goal all game. Jones is a streaky shooter, we all know this, but I don't really know how you can keep him out there with that scant production. The current bench is too deep to keep other players like Vasquez or the equally streaky Parrish Brown out of the game in the hopes that after seven missed shots Jones will get back on track. You'll end up losing more games while waiting for Jones to get hot, instead of using your bench.
More to the point if you look at Ken Pomery's fantastic website you can see that Mike Jones has a higher percentage of minutes played than any players except DJ Strawberry and James Gist. He is getting loads of minutes and takes a higher percentage of shots for the team while he is in the game than any player on the roster. If Jones isn't producing it is because he isn't hitting shots and failing to get to the free throw line, not because Gary Williams yanks him too quickly. There is an issue with the opposing defense dramatically changing depending on whether Jones is in or out of the game, but that's for another time.
Friday, December 08, 2006
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Winning Ugly
Maryland's game against Fordham last night was one of the worst 20 point victories I've seen in a long time. For long stretches the Terps' offense looked disjointed and sloppy while the defense was solid but not spectacular. It seemed that there was still a hangover from the loss to Notre Dame on Sunday as the players were lethargic and unfocused for long stretches. Fordham held a lead until 9 minutes left in the first half but stayed within striking distance until late in the 2nd half. The Rams are a pesky guard oriented team with multi-skilled big men, just the kind of team that gave Maryland fits the last few years. Fordham also has shown an ability to create turnovers which they did with effectiveness against Maryland's young players. The real weakness of Fordham is their mediocre shooting, which prevented them from exploiting more of Maryland's defensive breakdowns. In the end Maryland's deep bench just ground down the Rams and made the final margin of victory deceptive.
Mike Jones had an excellent offensive game scoring 18 points and adding 6 rebounds. He is a streaky shooter and his first few shots of the night will usual tell the tail of how Jones will do in a particular game. There were also moments that showed why he finds the bench from time to time as his defense and ball handling deficiencies were also evident. He must have given up about 6 points due to defensive breakdowns, but that is what Jones will give you.
Ekene Ibekwe and James Gist both got into early foul trouble and only played a combined 14 minutes in the 1st half. At times Gary Williams played DJ Strawberry at the power forward spot. Bambale Osby, perhaps one of the better bench players in college basketball, came in and gave Maryland 6 points and 3 rebounds in 11 minutes of valuable production. He is one of the most effecient players on the team and has the unique ability to come off the bench and make plays immediately. Next season Osby will be able to be a regular double-double producer while playing starters minutes. Ibekwe made some impressive blocks and Gist scored 8 points in the 2nd half but neither had a good game. The were both careless with the ball and made some bad decisions when the got passes in the low post. Neither is a tough and nasty low post player, they both like floating around the lane and getting the ball with seperation from the defender.
Eric Hayes struggled again and he seems to be suffering from a lack of confidence that he displayed earlier in the season. He dribbled himself into some traps, as he did in the Notre Dame game, and made some very tentative passes that resulted in turnovers. Hayes isn't a scorer and Maryland relies on his steady hand to get the other players involved in the offense. When he struggles with his decision making he doesn't contribute much else to the team. Hopefully Hayes can get his game back on track before the game against Boston College. He has 10 turnovers and only 5 assists in his last two games. While Vasquez has received some well deserved hype recently, including in Sports Illustrated, the other players seem to be more comfortable in their roles with Hayes on the floor.
Greivis Vasquez helped to extend Maryland's lead late in the 2nd half with a number of drives to the basket that resulted in fouls. He was perfect from the floor and the foul line in the 2nd period. At times he was out of control and had his share of turnovers. He did contribute 16 points and tends to force the action a little better than Hayes with his current struggles.
DJ Strawberry didn't shoot particularly well but gave the Terps some steady ball handling while the freshmen struggled. He ended with 16 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists which is an impressive stat line. I do wish that Strawberry would become more of a vocal on the court leader. DJ says all the right things after games but it is more important to show that kind of leadership in the court when the freshmen are struggling and the marsh mellow big men need someone to stiffen their spines. Perhaps that isn't in Strawberry's constitution and I don't mean that as a criticisms of the heroic senior. Maryland would be much better if that was part of his game. This team really needs a court leader to reach its potential.
For me the story of the game was the 25 turnovers that Maryland compiled. Fordham may be a pesky bunch but far too many of the turnovers were of the unforced kind by Maryland. Sloppy passes and ball handling resulted in way too many possession being given away to the opponent. The Terps are efficient enough on offense that they have been able to overcome the turnovers for now and the defense has helped keep opponents from going on big runs. Maryland cannot continue to be so careless with the ball once league play starts and expect to win.
On the positive side the defense, helped by Fordham's poor shooting, was able to keep the Rams to 32% from the field and 33% from the 3-point line. It is a good sign that the defense, with a few breakdowns, continues to be solid. Maryland also rebounded better and held a 14 board advantage by the end of the game.
Maryland struggled but was able to right itself during the game and fight off a Fordham team that put a scare in Tennessee earlier in the year and may make some noise in the Atlantic 10. There will be some good things for Gary Williams to work on over the next few days to get ready for Boston College. The Eagles are a tough defensive team that requires an opponent to remain patient and move the ball for a good look at the basket. If the Terps are careless with the ball or settle for quick shots it will be a very difficult game to win. In some ways Boston College is similar to the Michigan State team that gave Maryland a tough and physical game earlier in the season. They don't have much offensive firepower beyond Jared Dudley but have a pair of streaky shooters in Sean Marshal and Tyrese Rice. Two keys will be who Gary Williams defends Dudley with, my guess is Strawberry, and if Boston College can exploit Maryland's problems with offensive rebounds.
Mike Jones had an excellent offensive game scoring 18 points and adding 6 rebounds. He is a streaky shooter and his first few shots of the night will usual tell the tail of how Jones will do in a particular game. There were also moments that showed why he finds the bench from time to time as his defense and ball handling deficiencies were also evident. He must have given up about 6 points due to defensive breakdowns, but that is what Jones will give you.
Ekene Ibekwe and James Gist both got into early foul trouble and only played a combined 14 minutes in the 1st half. At times Gary Williams played DJ Strawberry at the power forward spot. Bambale Osby, perhaps one of the better bench players in college basketball, came in and gave Maryland 6 points and 3 rebounds in 11 minutes of valuable production. He is one of the most effecient players on the team and has the unique ability to come off the bench and make plays immediately. Next season Osby will be able to be a regular double-double producer while playing starters minutes. Ibekwe made some impressive blocks and Gist scored 8 points in the 2nd half but neither had a good game. The were both careless with the ball and made some bad decisions when the got passes in the low post. Neither is a tough and nasty low post player, they both like floating around the lane and getting the ball with seperation from the defender.
Eric Hayes struggled again and he seems to be suffering from a lack of confidence that he displayed earlier in the season. He dribbled himself into some traps, as he did in the Notre Dame game, and made some very tentative passes that resulted in turnovers. Hayes isn't a scorer and Maryland relies on his steady hand to get the other players involved in the offense. When he struggles with his decision making he doesn't contribute much else to the team. Hopefully Hayes can get his game back on track before the game against Boston College. He has 10 turnovers and only 5 assists in his last two games. While Vasquez has received some well deserved hype recently, including in Sports Illustrated, the other players seem to be more comfortable in their roles with Hayes on the floor.
Greivis Vasquez helped to extend Maryland's lead late in the 2nd half with a number of drives to the basket that resulted in fouls. He was perfect from the floor and the foul line in the 2nd period. At times he was out of control and had his share of turnovers. He did contribute 16 points and tends to force the action a little better than Hayes with his current struggles.
DJ Strawberry didn't shoot particularly well but gave the Terps some steady ball handling while the freshmen struggled. He ended with 16 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists which is an impressive stat line. I do wish that Strawberry would become more of a vocal on the court leader. DJ says all the right things after games but it is more important to show that kind of leadership in the court when the freshmen are struggling and the marsh mellow big men need someone to stiffen their spines. Perhaps that isn't in Strawberry's constitution and I don't mean that as a criticisms of the heroic senior. Maryland would be much better if that was part of his game. This team really needs a court leader to reach its potential.
For me the story of the game was the 25 turnovers that Maryland compiled. Fordham may be a pesky bunch but far too many of the turnovers were of the unforced kind by Maryland. Sloppy passes and ball handling resulted in way too many possession being given away to the opponent. The Terps are efficient enough on offense that they have been able to overcome the turnovers for now and the defense has helped keep opponents from going on big runs. Maryland cannot continue to be so careless with the ball once league play starts and expect to win.
On the positive side the defense, helped by Fordham's poor shooting, was able to keep the Rams to 32% from the field and 33% from the 3-point line. It is a good sign that the defense, with a few breakdowns, continues to be solid. Maryland also rebounded better and held a 14 board advantage by the end of the game.
Maryland struggled but was able to right itself during the game and fight off a Fordham team that put a scare in Tennessee earlier in the year and may make some noise in the Atlantic 10. There will be some good things for Gary Williams to work on over the next few days to get ready for Boston College. The Eagles are a tough defensive team that requires an opponent to remain patient and move the ball for a good look at the basket. If the Terps are careless with the ball or settle for quick shots it will be a very difficult game to win. In some ways Boston College is similar to the Michigan State team that gave Maryland a tough and physical game earlier in the season. They don't have much offensive firepower beyond Jared Dudley but have a pair of streaky shooters in Sean Marshal and Tyrese Rice. Two keys will be who Gary Williams defends Dudley with, my guess is Strawberry, and if Boston College can exploit Maryland's problems with offensive rebounds.
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
Henderson Has Surgery
Linebacker Erin Henderson had fluid drained from a growth on his arm last week. After the Wake Forest game Henderson noticed his arm was swollen and when the area became the size of a baseball he decided to get it examined. Further tests are being conducted on the growth but Henderson is expected to play in the bowl game against Purdue. From the Washington Post.
The first loss by the basketball team resulted in some spirited practices on Monday. You can imagine Gary Williams wasn't too pleased with the effort of his team. There were more than a few culprits in the loss to Notre Dame. The players that Notre Dame has are similar to the kind you'd get at a high mid-major. Not very athletic, but skilled and good outside shooters. Just another example that you can't just show up in college basketball and beat 80% of the teams you play. From the Washington Times.
According to John Feinstein Gary Williams did mention the horrible job that the officials did during the Notre Dame game at the BB&T, but that isn't likely to change Maryland's commitment to playing in this event.
The first loss by the basketball team resulted in some spirited practices on Monday. You can imagine Gary Williams wasn't too pleased with the effort of his team. There were more than a few culprits in the loss to Notre Dame. The players that Notre Dame has are similar to the kind you'd get at a high mid-major. Not very athletic, but skilled and good outside shooters. Just another example that you can't just show up in college basketball and beat 80% of the teams you play. From the Washington Times.
According to John Feinstein Gary Williams did mention the horrible job that the officials did during the Notre Dame game at the BB&T, but that isn't likely to change Maryland's commitment to playing in this event.
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
Ratings for BB&T
Maryland
Defense: 100.9
Offense: 92.1
Fairly obvious why this game turned out the way it did for the Terps. That is the highest, and therefore worst, defensive rating Maryland has given up all year. The offensive rating was the also the worst of the season for the Terps and only the second game it dipped below 100, the 95.9 against Winthrop was the only other sub-100 performance.
In spite of the poor defense that allowed 11 consecutive field goals Notre Dame still only shot 43% from the floor and a mediocre 37% from 3-point range. Not many teams would win consistently with those offensive numbers. If Maryland had been able to execute just a little better on offense they could have won with the poor defense.
Football News
I have not forgotten about the football team, even though it may seem that way. They'll get to play Purdue in an intreguing matchup with a decent Big Ten school at the Champs Sports Bowl. Purdue Coach Joe Tiller is one of the better stratigists in college football and seeing him match wits with Ralph Friedgen should be a treat. Interestingly the Boilermakers avoided having to play Michigan or Ohio State in their league schedule and failed to win a game against any conference foe with a winning record.
I'll have a season roundup with my thoughts on the Boston College and Wake Forest losses in the next few weeks.
Defense: 100.9
Offense: 92.1
Fairly obvious why this game turned out the way it did for the Terps. That is the highest, and therefore worst, defensive rating Maryland has given up all year. The offensive rating was the also the worst of the season for the Terps and only the second game it dipped below 100, the 95.9 against Winthrop was the only other sub-100 performance.
In spite of the poor defense that allowed 11 consecutive field goals Notre Dame still only shot 43% from the floor and a mediocre 37% from 3-point range. Not many teams would win consistently with those offensive numbers. If Maryland had been able to execute just a little better on offense they could have won with the poor defense.
Football News
I have not forgotten about the football team, even though it may seem that way. They'll get to play Purdue in an intreguing matchup with a decent Big Ten school at the Champs Sports Bowl. Purdue Coach Joe Tiller is one of the better stratigists in college football and seeing him match wits with Ralph Friedgen should be a treat. Interestingly the Boilermakers avoided having to play Michigan or Ohio State in their league schedule and failed to win a game against any conference foe with a winning record.
I'll have a season roundup with my thoughts on the Boston College and Wake Forest losses in the next few weeks.
Monday, December 04, 2006
Young Terps Stumble
Surely no one thought that Maryland was going to go undefeated this season. With young players at key positions the progression of a team is never linear and there will be inevitable setbacks. After three wins over major conference opponents to start the season the Terps got into a game with a scrappy opponent that wanted to prove something by beating the first ranked opponent in seven tries. Notre Dame was fired up for this game and Maryland seemed to still be basking in the glow of their win at Illinois. It will be different for this group now that they have attracted so much attention and some rather lofty rankings by sports writers. Maryland found itself on every "power" poll that is published on the internet and for middle of the road squads like Notre Dame it can make their season to beat the Terrapins. Being able to handle that pressure will be another step in the maturation of this group.
It is true that Maryland has a collection of seniors but the majority of them are only second year starters. The 2002 class acted as a logjam that stagnated the entire program but especially the 2003 class that followed them. In a perfect world this group would have matured as bench players and have been fully formed coming into this season but it is clear after the Notre Dame game that they still have to hone certain aspects of their game. From Mike Jones being a total non-factor, Ekene Ibekwe's stupid technical foul for taunting, to DJ Strawberry waiting till it was too late to take over the game it wasn't a great game for the seniors. The freshman didn't look as mature as they had the first eight games with both Eric Hayes and Greivis Vasquez both struggling and looking like kids with two months experience on a college campus.
Sometimes when a team is on a hot streak layoff like the one Maryland had after the Tuesday game in Champaign can result in the kind of lackadaisical and uninspired performance that we saw the other night. Nortre Dame clearly wanted to play a very physical game and from the tip they hand checked and bodied all the Maryland players. As it became clear the officials were not in the mood to whistle much of anything the Fighting Irish turned more towards the goon style of defense. I became very concerned that a Terps player would leave the game with a bad injury as the officials let the game spiral out of control. DJ Strawberry and James Gist both were sent crashing to the floor at different points but were thankfully not badly injured. It reminded me of the play in last season's BB&T that saw blood on the floor when George Washington beat Maryland. It was clear that the middling coach of the Irish, Mike Brey, who seems to think that the 1990's jacket and mock turtle neck look is still fashionable, studied the Michigan State game tape and decided to try to be very physical with Maryland. Given that his team has the collective athleticism of Gene Hackman's team in Hoosiers it was his best choice. At one point in the first half his big men were scared to even go into the lane against the jack rabbits wearing Maryland jerseys. After two Notre Dame goons nearly decapitated James Gist as he went up for a dunk in the 2nd half they seemed to gain a little courage.
As ridiculous as the officiating was it wasn't what lost the game for Maryland. A string of 11 field goals in a row for Notre Dame was what turned the tide against the Terps. With a comfortable eight point lead with 14 minutes left in the second half Maryland seemed ready to blow Notre Dame out of the gym then Ekene Ibekwe showed some of his immaturity and taunted a Nortre Dame player after a block. He was quickly called for a technical foul that helped to spark the run by the Irish. Notre Dame spread the floor out after that and beat Maryland with cuts to the basket but it wasn't until after they had started to make a run and Maryland's defense unravled.
James Gist and Ekene Ibekwe had their softness and lack of interior play laid bare for all to see. Neither has the kind of nasty streak you need in a great interior player. They are most effective when Maryland's wing players can drive to the basket and draw defenders giving Gist and Ibekwe the space they need to be effective. In this game Maryland's guards were unable to do that with any effectiveness. It is worth noting that Bambale Osby grabbed 8 rebounds in sixteen minutes which is three more than Ibekwe got in 25 minutes. Gist matched Osby's total but took 32 minutes to do it.
Eric Hayes had the worst night of his young career. The initial pressure by Notre Dame got him out of sorts and he didn't seem the same the rest of the night. For the first time this season he had more turnovers (4) than assists (2). He also struggled badly to defend the dribble penetrations by Kyle McAlarney, who had only scored in double digits once all season.
His fellow freshman teammate Greivis Vasquez didn't have a great night either and shot a terrible 4-15 from the floor. At times Vasquez took some bad shots and rushed possessions giving the opponent more opportunity to increase their lead. This should throw some cold water on fools like Greg Doyle who think Gary Williams is crazy to start Eric Hayes at point.
It is a shame that DJ Strawberry waited until Maryland was down 8 points with just over a minute to start asserting himself. Strawberry scored 9 points in about 40 seconds and clearly showed that Notre Dame didn't have a single player who could match him one-on-one. Makes you wonder what would have happened had Strawberry snapped out of his funk sooner. I'm not blaming DJ since he showed some real heart at the end of the game and nearly had his season ended with another knee injury later in the game. He is as tough and gutsy a player as Maryland has had since Juan Dixon but he needs to realize that he has to bear the burden of being "The Man" for this group. Once he embraces that Maryland will be better off. His post game comments seem to indicate he realizes that he must take leadership of this group.
So far this season there have been a number of surprising losses for ranked teams: Arizona losing to Virginia, Kansas losing to Oral Roberts, Georgetown losing to ODU, this is the state of college basketball. There is a dilution of talent and parity reigns so you'd better be ready to play every night. Maryland learned this lesson against a Notre Dame team they should have handled easily. The same day Georgia Tech learned that lesson when they lost to a terrible Miami squad. That may well come back to haunt the Yellow Jackets. For Maryland this game may be just a learning experience.
It is true that Maryland has a collection of seniors but the majority of them are only second year starters. The 2002 class acted as a logjam that stagnated the entire program but especially the 2003 class that followed them. In a perfect world this group would have matured as bench players and have been fully formed coming into this season but it is clear after the Notre Dame game that they still have to hone certain aspects of their game. From Mike Jones being a total non-factor, Ekene Ibekwe's stupid technical foul for taunting, to DJ Strawberry waiting till it was too late to take over the game it wasn't a great game for the seniors. The freshman didn't look as mature as they had the first eight games with both Eric Hayes and Greivis Vasquez both struggling and looking like kids with two months experience on a college campus.
Sometimes when a team is on a hot streak layoff like the one Maryland had after the Tuesday game in Champaign can result in the kind of lackadaisical and uninspired performance that we saw the other night. Nortre Dame clearly wanted to play a very physical game and from the tip they hand checked and bodied all the Maryland players. As it became clear the officials were not in the mood to whistle much of anything the Fighting Irish turned more towards the goon style of defense. I became very concerned that a Terps player would leave the game with a bad injury as the officials let the game spiral out of control. DJ Strawberry and James Gist both were sent crashing to the floor at different points but were thankfully not badly injured. It reminded me of the play in last season's BB&T that saw blood on the floor when George Washington beat Maryland. It was clear that the middling coach of the Irish, Mike Brey, who seems to think that the 1990's jacket and mock turtle neck look is still fashionable, studied the Michigan State game tape and decided to try to be very physical with Maryland. Given that his team has the collective athleticism of Gene Hackman's team in Hoosiers it was his best choice. At one point in the first half his big men were scared to even go into the lane against the jack rabbits wearing Maryland jerseys. After two Notre Dame goons nearly decapitated James Gist as he went up for a dunk in the 2nd half they seemed to gain a little courage.
As ridiculous as the officiating was it wasn't what lost the game for Maryland. A string of 11 field goals in a row for Notre Dame was what turned the tide against the Terps. With a comfortable eight point lead with 14 minutes left in the second half Maryland seemed ready to blow Notre Dame out of the gym then Ekene Ibekwe showed some of his immaturity and taunted a Nortre Dame player after a block. He was quickly called for a technical foul that helped to spark the run by the Irish. Notre Dame spread the floor out after that and beat Maryland with cuts to the basket but it wasn't until after they had started to make a run and Maryland's defense unravled.
James Gist and Ekene Ibekwe had their softness and lack of interior play laid bare for all to see. Neither has the kind of nasty streak you need in a great interior player. They are most effective when Maryland's wing players can drive to the basket and draw defenders giving Gist and Ibekwe the space they need to be effective. In this game Maryland's guards were unable to do that with any effectiveness. It is worth noting that Bambale Osby grabbed 8 rebounds in sixteen minutes which is three more than Ibekwe got in 25 minutes. Gist matched Osby's total but took 32 minutes to do it.
Eric Hayes had the worst night of his young career. The initial pressure by Notre Dame got him out of sorts and he didn't seem the same the rest of the night. For the first time this season he had more turnovers (4) than assists (2). He also struggled badly to defend the dribble penetrations by Kyle McAlarney, who had only scored in double digits once all season.
His fellow freshman teammate Greivis Vasquez didn't have a great night either and shot a terrible 4-15 from the floor. At times Vasquez took some bad shots and rushed possessions giving the opponent more opportunity to increase their lead. This should throw some cold water on fools like Greg Doyle who think Gary Williams is crazy to start Eric Hayes at point.
It is a shame that DJ Strawberry waited until Maryland was down 8 points with just over a minute to start asserting himself. Strawberry scored 9 points in about 40 seconds and clearly showed that Notre Dame didn't have a single player who could match him one-on-one. Makes you wonder what would have happened had Strawberry snapped out of his funk sooner. I'm not blaming DJ since he showed some real heart at the end of the game and nearly had his season ended with another knee injury later in the game. He is as tough and gutsy a player as Maryland has had since Juan Dixon but he needs to realize that he has to bear the burden of being "The Man" for this group. Once he embraces that Maryland will be better off. His post game comments seem to indicate he realizes that he must take leadership of this group.
So far this season there have been a number of surprising losses for ranked teams: Arizona losing to Virginia, Kansas losing to Oral Roberts, Georgetown losing to ODU, this is the state of college basketball. There is a dilution of talent and parity reigns so you'd better be ready to play every night. Maryland learned this lesson against a Notre Dame team they should have handled easily. The same day Georgia Tech learned that lesson when they lost to a terrible Miami squad. That may well come back to haunt the Yellow Jackets. For Maryland this game may be just a learning experience.
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