Friday, February 19, 2010

ACC news & notes

Could Duke be in for another late season slide? According to John Gasaway at the Basketball Prospectus it looks very likely. Duke is clearly the best team in the conference but they have shown some weakness, particularly away from Cameron. That makes the potential showdown with Maryland the second to last game of the season very intriguing.

If you want a conference dark horse take a look at Florida State. Sitting at 7-5 with a sweep of Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech the Seminoles have a very favorable remaining schedule with road games at North Carolina and Miami and home games against Clemson and Wake Forest, neither of which are particularly good road teams. The offense has improved the last four games while Michael Snaer and Xavier Gibson are providing more reliable bench scoring that wasn’t there earlier in the season. If Maryland falters you could see the Seminoles finish 2nd in the ACC.

On the other hand Clemson is probably the most likely team to stumble to the finish. Never a particularly great road team Clemson must travel to Maryland, FSU and Wake Forest in their last five games. Throw in a home game against Georgia Tech and that is probably the most difficult remaining slate for any of the teams near the top.

My predicted finish for the ACC:

 

  1. Duke (13-3)
  2. FSU (11-5)
  3. Virginia Tech (11-5)
  4. Maryland (10-6)
  5. Wake Forest (10-6)
  6. Georgia Tech (8-8)
  7. Clemson (8-8)
  8. Virginia (6-10)
  9. North Carolina (5-11)
  10. Boston College (5-11)
  11. Miami (4-12)
  12. N.C. State (3-13)

I might be a little pessimistic about Maryland’s chances but I wouldn’t want to seem like a homer. It would be nice to finally get a top-4 first round bye in the ACC Tournament and that could set up a rematch of the 85-83 overtime loss to Wake Forest.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

If as you predict Md. and Wake tie at 10/6 wouldn't Md fall from top4 since Wake beat Md. in their only meeting?

Esquire said...

You are correct, Maryland would lose the tiebreaker if Wake and the Terps were tied. I had not been thinking of tiebreakers when I wrote out the records I was only thinking about my guess for the order of finish. Right now I'd say Maryland has a better chance to finish 2nd or 3rd than fourth.