Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Early ACC report

Now that the basketball season has matured just a bit it is worth looking at how the ACC stands in regards to the NCAA Tournament. You would have to assume that North Carolina and Duke are assured high seeds in the NCAA Tournament but after that the league post season picture is very hazy.

Outside of the two powers at the top it is oddly Maryland that probably has the best non-conference resume of any team in the league. The Terps have wins over Michigan State and Michigan and have gotten the attention of NCAA prognosticators. Over at Buster Sports Andrew Jones claims Maryland has set itself up nicely with their out of conference play. Michigan State still figures to be one of the top two or three in the Big Ten and Michigan may make some noise this year after upsetting UCLA and Duke in the last few weeks.

Wake Forest certainly looks good at the moment but they haven't played a credible team yet outside of Baylor. The Deacons non-conference slate is lacking a marquee opponent though a win at BYU may look good from the perspective of RPI. Wake Forest will have to do damage in the ACC because none of their current wins are worth noting.

Florida State may have the second best resume with road wins at Jacksonville and La Salle with neutral court wins over California and Cincinnati. The best looking win is over Florida but the Gators are probably a more marginal squad than the preseason raking would suggest. The Seminoles lost to Northwestern but have two big opportunities against Pittsburgh and Western Kentucky left before ACC play.

Clemson is 9-0 so far with road wins against Illinois and Charlotte, who isn't very good this season, but has little opportunity for any notable wins the rest of the out of conference schedule.

Miami stands at 5-2 with losses to Connecticut and Ohio State but even if they win the rest of their non-conference games they won't have a single impressive out of conference win, unless you consider beating a Kentucky team that lost its opener to VMI impressive.

Boston College doesn't have any remaining opportunities for impressive wins after losing to Purdue.

NC State does have opportunities remaining against Marquette and Florida but is a long shot to make the NCAA Tournament.

Georgia Tech lost a crushing game to Penn State but has road opportunities remaining against USC and Alabama. The Yellow Jackets can probably only afford one more loss before the ACC season starts.

Virginia and Virginia Tech may have both played their way out of the NCAA Tournament already. The Cavaliers were unlikely to even make the NIT this season but do play Xavier. Another couple of losses would likely have the Wahoos looking towards 2009. The Hokies already have four losses and even though there are no "bad" losses in the group the numbers are already stacked against them. Assuming they win all four remaining out of conference game that would place Seth Greenberg's squad at 9-4 going into ACC play. Even with a 9-7 ACC record, which is a long shot, they would then only have a 18-11 overall record going into the ACC Tournament. That probably won't be enough to earn an NCAA bid unless they can score wins against Duke or UNC. It is unlikely Greenberg will have to lobby for his team this March as they'll likely be NIT bound by then.


homertuck said...

Maybe Seth Greenberg will win another ACC Coach of the year award for coaching a team to an 8-8 conference record. That guy's a talentless joke.

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