Thursday, March 05, 2009

Forty minutes of stats

Converting common statistics to per forty minute numbers does have it's faults but it can illuminate strengths or weaknesses of certain players. Here is a collection of stats for this Terps squad with commentary to follow. Note this includes ACC games only.

PlayerPoints/40 min

No real surprises here. Vasquez is still clearly the best offensive threat this team has but Milbourne and Bowie can be threats, if inconsistently. Tucker is a significantly better offensive option off the bench than any other guard at the moment. His numbers are probably inflated by the two UNC games but he is in a bit of an offensive groove right now and when he starts hot he can do real damage. Dave Neal isn't nearly the offensive threat he would seem to be if you just watched the Wake Forest game. Neal's offensive abilities are rather one dimensional but he can be productive when teams key on Vasquez and let him drift out to the perimeter. Mosley is still struggling to produce on offense but his strengths are on defense and rebounding (as you'll see in a moment.) Gregory is a non-factor on offense and clearly the worst regular rotation player at scoring.

PlayerRebounds/40 min

You can probably throw out the Dupree and Kim numbers, though I don't think either of them are bad rebounders. Their paltry playing time inflates the few rebounds they grab but for a bean pole Kim doesn't do a half bad job rebounding. Mosley shows his worth in this statistic with a very impressive number, even better than the starting "forwards" on the team. Neal and Milbourne are not great rebounders so their stats are what I would expect though Milbourne should probably do better than he does with his physical ability. Gregory has a surprisingly low number for a player who should be all about hustle, defense and rebounding. Bowie is a great rebounder for his size and Vasquez grabs what you'd expect from a 6-5 guard. Tucker and Hayes are not particularly disposed to grabbing rebounds either in body frame or instincts.

PlayerAssists/40 min

This is a stat you'd expect Vasquez to lead the team in and he does so comfortably. Interesting that Hayes and Bowie are at the same level plus Bowie is far better at driving the lane. Based on where they play in the offense Mosley and Tucker are not going to have high numbers. Tucker is more a wing and Mosley is playing more inside these days but I'd say they are about equal.

PlayerTurnovers/40 min

Surprised Vasquez was not at the top? Bowie's decision making with the ball is his only drawback as a point guard. His lack of outside shooting makes him more suited to that position than the "two" guard. As you saw above his assist totals are fine but he needs to cut down on the turnovers, often charges. Vasquez is high because of the risks he takes trying to make a play but his ability to break down defenses is worth the extra half turnover you give up instead of someone like Hayes who doesn't provide many opportunities for his teammates. Clearly Dave Neal's steady play and low turnover rate are what earns him minutes, along with his shooting. He doesn't handle the ball as much as some other players so it is a little skewed but he does have better numbers than Gregory or Milbourne. You shouldn't turn the ball over much when you mostly shoot jumpers and set screens but he does a good job not turning the ball over willy nilly.


Anonymous said...

These stats are extremely misleading!

demba said...

what about foul/40 minutes?

xfreestater said...

Gregory's bad scoring numbers shouldn't surprise anyone, but his rebounding numbers are surprising. Frankly, I'm not sure Gregory has been a whole lot better than Dupree.

Esquire said...

The statistics are merely numbers and not misleading at all. If you feel my interpretation is misleading then by all means point out where you think I have been misleading. I think per 40 minute stats are much more useful than many of the common stats used by the league (why do they think scoring defense or offense means anything?) or worthless +/- numbers (no offense to Patrick Stevens). If Ken Pomeroy only used conference stats you'd probably find that these rankings are in line with his statistics.

Here are the fouls per 40 minutes:

1. Kim 7.8
2. Dupree 7.0
3. Gregory 6.2
4. Bowie 3.9
5. Tucker 3.6
6. Mosley 3.4
7. Milbourne 3.2
8. Vasquez 3.2
9. Neal 2.9
10. Hayes 1.6

Again I would throw out Kim and Dupree's numbers because the minutes they play are such a small sample size. Gregory fouls way too much for the time he plays. I'd say if you are a starter or play starter minutes if you are under 3 fouls per 40 minutes you probably don't play very good defense. Anything over 3.5 and you are probably fouling too much. It is worth noting that Vasquez has fouled out four times in league play and Milbourne has fouled out three times. Two of Vasquez's DQs have been intentional fouls at the end of the game.